Sunday, April 20, 2008

Hurricane Gore

Newsmax reports that Kerry Emanuel, a "prominent MIT hurricane scientist", has repudiated assertions that Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) drives tropical storm systems that grow to hurricanes. Computer models project scenarios in wild divergence from reality, asserts Prof. Emanuel, previously cited as a major authority by Gore-bastic acolytes. Though hurricanes have strengthened over the past thirty years (1979, satellites' first global coverage), their annual incidence has lessened: "(Our) models ... (fail at) reproducing Nature," says Emanuel.

Strange... since at least the mid-19th Century, before "climatology" became an acknowledged technical if not scientific discipline ["models" are no substitute for controlled experiments, which by definition cannot obtain], atmospheric studies have unequivocally defined cyclic phenomena that cancel or reinforce in overlapping waves. Lorenz's "butterfly effect", the basis of Chaos Theory [Lorenz just died at age 96], asserts that non-random processes may yet be indeterminate: On self-similar ("fractal") scales, chance and necessity drive patterns from root biases entirely too subtle to detect. Wholly determined, yes, but also unpredictable because consequences in fractal-geometric detail are unknown, unknowable.

Short-term climate cycles are just that. Whatever engendered oscillating fluctuations centuries ago, modern industrial civilization is not a factor. And since cycles by definition DO repeat, why waste literally billions of dollars to re-state the obvious, when by Chaos Theory no meaningful cause-and-effect correlation of factors is evident, or can be.

In any case, top aides to AGW skeptics in the U.S. Congress --Senator James Inhofe, R-Oklahoma, for one-- boldly assert that 2007 represented a "tipping point" for AGW alarmists, that as new-found skeptics like Emanuel speak out 2008 may finally drive a stake through Global Warming's vampire heart, restore a modicum of scrutiny to this latest ur-Leftist campaign to bleed free-enterprise capitalism to death by a thousand pseudo-scientific cuts.

1 comment:

N. C. Taylor said...

"Short-term climate cycles are just that. Whatever engendered oscillating fluctuations centuries ago, modern industrial civilization is not a factor."

Except that it is; there is no way that you can argue we are burning up all of the carbon sequestered underground millions of years ago and kicking it back up into the air, with no effect. It is having/will have an effect, though the scope is unknown and poorly supported on both sides.

Large Volcanic eruptions, various nuclear events (Chernobyl, Hiroshima, Nagasaki) all have impacted our atmosphere and have changed its constitution to the point of changing the weather. Big or small, the effects are there. In China, seeding clouds is common, and human impact on the weather can be as simple as that.